NBA Blog

The tax final is D U N.  It actually wasn’t as bad as I had anticipated, but the jury is still out, where it will remain until I get my grades.  I eagerly anticipate tomorrow, where I will sit all day watching the draft (and working on Con Law II) and the start of the NBA playoffs.

This is what I wrote before the NBA season began:
Playoffs: (1) Indiana, (2)Miami (division winner), (3) Philadelphia, (4) Detroit, (5) Toronto, (6) Cleveland, (7) Washington, (8) Boston
2nd Round: Indiana, Miami, Detroit, Philadelphia
Eastern Conference Finals: Miami, Detroit

Eastern Conference Champs: Detroit

Western Conference:

Northwest: Minnesota, Denver, Utah, Portland, Seattle

Pacific: Sacramento, Phoenix, L.A. Lakers, L.A. Clippers, Seattle

Southwest: San Antonio, Houston, Dallas, Memphis, New Orleans

Playoffs: (1) San Antonio, (2) Minnesota, (3) Sacramento, (4) Houston, (5) Phoenix, (6) Denver, (7) Dallas, (8) Memphis
2nd Round: (1) San Antonio, (2) Minnesota, (6) Denver, (4) Houston
Western Conference Finals: (1) San Antonio, (2) Minnesota
Western Conference Champs: San Antonio

NBA Champs: San Antonio (in 6 games)

The glaring errors were the Toronto (Vince screwed them), Cleveland (new owner issues certainly didn’t help), and Minnesota (Sam and Spree aged more than Mutombo before this season).  Sure, I whiffed on the Baby Bulls, but who didn’t.  All in all, I think I did quite well with the regular season finishes. 

With everything set now for the postseason, let’s see how it will turn out now:

Eastern Conference Round One:
     (1) Miami over (8) New Jersey in five games. New Jersey will take one game from the Heat relying on J.Kidd.  I don’t think Richard Jefferson will get to do too much, simply because he’s been on the shelf for so long.  Besides he typically has no offense below the rim.  Carter will disappear in the half-court sets against Shaq and Zo.
     (2) Detroit over (7) Philly in six games.  It is really difficult to go against Iverson’s heart.  Igoudala will be all over Rip-city, but in the end, the Pistons are too tough on the boards and the defensive end.  Iverson will try his hardest to win the series, and probably has four games over 33 points, with two HUGE games.  However, it will come with too many shots, and the Pistons pull this one out.
     (6) Indianapolis over (3) Boston in seven.  This will be a very tight series, but Reggie Miller’s swan song will continue.  O’Neal’s really banged up, but Boston absolutely struggles in close games.  Pierce and Walker will try to re-live their glory days, but Carlisle is too solid of a coach.  The Pacers team has a lot of players who got big time minutes, which is the only good thing to come out of the Detroit-Indy brawl.  Johnson, Jones, Jones, and Foster will keep it close enough for Stephen Jackson (he is extremely clutch from the outside in big games) and Reggie Miller.  I guarantee two wins Pacers’ wins in the final minute of games, one from Jax, and one from Miller.
     (4) Washington over (5) Chicago in six.  I really have no idea for this series.  It will go either way, and end in six (the safe bet, because almost every series goes six).  The question for this series will be: Will it be Arenas or Gordon in the end?  I prefer Gordon, but I think losing Deng and Curry hurts the Bulls too much to handle Hughes, Arenas, and Jamison.  Deng could have guarded either Hughes or Jamison for stretches, and Curry would have had big numbers on Etan Thomas and Brendan Haywood.  I also think Tyson Chandler earns a couple of millions in this series when he owns Kwame Brown on the glass.

In Round 2 Shaq destroys the Wizards, and quite possibly sends Kwame into a Shawn Bradley like freefall.  Wade v. Arenas will be fun to watch for five games.  Yep, that’s all it takes for Miami in round two.
Reggie’s career comes to an end in what will be the most hyped series of the postseason.  Media, who are complaining because there is no Kobe, LeBron, or K.G. in the playoffs, will be ALL over this with doomsday scenarios.  The Wallaces and Prince will be too much for the Pacers front line.  Prince will contain Jax, right up to the point Jax loses his cool, and has to be benched.  Richard Jefferson did the same thing for two games in the 2003 championship run.

Eastern Finals: Shaq and Wade will make a much better tandem against the Pistons than Shaq and Kobe did.  Besides, I don’t think the Pistons are as strong as they were last year.  Rip will get beat up during the playoffs, courtesy of Igoudala, and he will be tired of one-upping Reggie (much like last year).  Rasheed’s injuries will continue to build as well.  Losing Mike James also hurt their team defense more than people recognize.  Mike James is a much better defender than Carlos Arroyo, which is why Arroyo is in Larry Brown’s dog house all the time.

The question is who will the Heat face in the finals?

WESTERN CONFERENCE Round One
     (1) Phoenix over (8) Memphis in four.  Too much running and gunning, and Pau Gasol won’t get enough touches in this series.  The Suns will outshoot Memphis, and they will have another short playoff stint.  The Griz need to make a move this summer and bring in another big gun to run with Pau Gasol and Mike Miller. 
     (2) San Antonio over (7) Denver in six.  This one only goes six, because Duncan, Manu, and Devin Brown aren’t 100%.  The Spurs have too much playoff experience and too much depth for the white-hot Nuggets.  Bowen will drive ‘Melo crazy.  He will disappear when he doesn’t get his offense going early, and will settle for jumpers too often.
An important note on this series:  I just finished reading the Sports Guy’s new article on ESPN Page 2.  I typically always agree with him, and sometimes “borrow” some of his jokes.  But there is one thing he discussed that I needed to address.  He set out a formula for how to beat the Spurs, and, for the most part, it was correct.  However, he said that the Nuggets will be effective against Duncan when they throw K-Mart, Camby, and Nene at him.  Well, recent and long-term (five years) history goes against this.  K-Mart has NEVER played well against Duncan, and all the little things that he tries to do to irritate his opponent falls right off of the back of Duncan.  Timmy completely owns K-Mart, and will do so again, because nothing bothers Duncan.  In the ‘99 playoffs, the Knicks tried to throw Camby’s length at Duncan to stop him.  Duncan won the MVP in the series.  Not good odds for the Nuggets.  Duncan at 80% is 120 times better than Camby.
    (3) Seattle over (6) Sacramento in five.  Sacramento only wins one game because the Sonics will shoot poorly enough to keep the Kings and Bibby alive.  Despite all the injuries to the Sonics, they are still better than the Kings without Brad Miller, Bobby Jackson, and possibly Peja Stojakovic.  Besides, even if playing, Peja has yet to show me anything after the regular season.
    (4) Dallas over (5) Houston in six games.  I was confused about this one, but thinking about it, Dampier will lay on Yao enough to make him shoot turnarounds.  I also cannot go against the Little General.  I just love rooting for Avery Johnson.  He’s got Dirk playing defense, and the Mavs are scoring more now than under Nellie.  Who could have imagined?  Van Horn will revert back to his former self, and I don’t like the Mavs point guard tandem.  McGrady wins two games for the Rockets, but no one will stop Dirk in this series.  He’s averaging 34 and 12. 

Round Two:  Too much Amare and Nash for Dirk to handle.  It will be a great series and go seven games with a ton of points scored in the series.  Phoenix will ride the MVP runner-up to the Western Conference finals.
San Antonio will struggle with the Sonics, because that’s what they do against Seattle this season.  Ray Allen loves to light it up against S.A.  However, without Antonio Daniels and Vlad, the Sonics lack of depth will kill them, and Ray will end up bolting after the season.  Rashard Lewis and Duncan will both be coming back to full strength, so it will get interesting.  I think the key in this series will be Parker.  Parker will own the paint against Seattle’s porous defense, and the former Mophead.  No one stops the Spurs inside game, as Nazr takes all of Rasho’s minutes.

In the finals, my bias takes over and the Spurs win it all.  Even if they end up playing Detroit, Spurs win it all. 

One final point:  The media has jumped on LeBron wanting out.  Ummm… no.  He isn’t going anywhere.  He put up 27-7-7 this year, in year two, and he’s twenty.  He’s still two years ahead of M.J.  All they need to do in Cleveland is hire a g.m. who has a clue.  Here’s what needs to be done:

1.  Bring in a coach who knows how to use LeBron.  One person who would do well is Flip Saunders.  He worked perfectly with a young K.G., and his passing offense would benefit Bron’s skills perfectly.
2.  Re-sign Z.  Z may have a ton of miles, and some really questionable feet, but he’s still going to give the Cavs 17 and 8.  That ain’t too shabby.  If Z asks for too much money, then they have an alternative in going after Samuel Dalembert, Kwame Brown, or Tyson Chandler to handle the paint for him.  Z’s offensive skills are much better than all three and would be a better option.
3.  Go after a shooter.  Remember how I said Ray Allen was bolting?  Exactly.  Perfect fit.  Same with Michael Redd.  These guys would open up the offense and drop the jumpers that Ira Newble couldn’t hit.
4.  Give the young guns minutes.  I’m still not giving up on Luke Jackson.  He will get it done.  Another quality player to help is Jiri Welsch.  He didn’t get near enough minutes after the trade.  Those two are quality complementary players who would fill in for whichever shooter the Cavs go after, and would spell Bron.  Anderson Varejao needs more minutes to continue his development.  I think he will take Gooden’s starting spot by the All-Star break next season.  He won’t score as much as Gooden, but he won’t do the spastic Gooden things. 
5.  Get point guard help.  I think Jeff McInnis has run his time in Cleveland.  Eric Snow would be a solid back-up point guard, but I don’t know if he does enough as a starter anymore.  I love his work ethic, and all the little things, but he shouldn’t run the offense full-time.  I haven’t checked the future free agents, but someone like Mike James or Chucky Atkins would be good fits.  Both shoot well enough to knock down some jumpers, and carry more time than Snow.

Sure, re-upping Z and going after Redd/Allen would cost a lot of money.  But a young, excitable owner should make sure everything is done to protect the goose that lays the golden eggs.  Bron is the present and future of the league.  You do EVERYTHING to keep that in your city.  Breaking the salary cap threshold is certainly worth bringing in guys that will keep Bron in his home state to make a run at a dynasty.

Whew.  That was a lot of typing.  I’m done.